Lockdowns averted 300,000 deaths in 11 European countries-otgnewsupdate

Tuesday, June 9, 2020
Lockdowns averted 300,000 deaths in 11 European countries-otgnewsupdate

PARIS: Lockdowns prevented nearly 3.1 million deaths in 11 European countries as more countries refrained from taking drastic measures to stem the spread of the new corona virus, according to a new modeling study published on Monday.

Research from Imperial College London, whose scientists are advising the British government on the virus, found that restrictions such as the Steam at Home Order have helped control the epidemic.

Using data from the European Centers for Disease Control on deaths in 11 countries as of May 4, they compared the number of deaths observed in countries to those who compared their model. According to the forecast, if no ban was imposed.

He estimates that about 3.1 million deaths have been prevented through policies. The researchers also found that the number of reproductions caused by the interventions - how many people are infected with the virus - fell by an average of 82 percent to less than 1.0 percent.

"Our results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions, and in particular lockdowns, have had a significant impact," said the authors in the study, published in Nature Research.

"Continuous intervention should be considered to control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2." Researchers estimate that a total of 12 to 15 million people were affected during this period - or between 3.2 and 4% of the population of 11 countries.

There have been significant fluctuations between countries, with only 710,000 people in Germany being infected with the virus, or 0.85% of the population.

This is comparable to Belgium, which has the highest rate of infection in 8% of countries, and Spain, where about 5.5% of the population, or 2.6 million people, were infected.

The authors say that since interventions such as the ban on public events and the closure of schools were immediately imposed, it is difficult to separate the effects of each. But they found that the overall lockdown measures had a recognizable and "substantial" effect, reducing transmission estimates by 81%.

The 11 nations were: Germany, France, Italy, Great Britain, Spain, Belgium, Austria, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. The authors acknowledged that one of the limitations of their model was that it estimated that each move had the same effect on all countries, when in fact "there was a difference in the impact of lockdown in different countries".

In a separate study, also published in Nature, UC Berkeley researchers used a different method. Econometric modeling was used to assess how policies affect economic growth. States.

The researchers used data on daily infection rates and hundreds of local interventions as of April 6. He compared the growth rate of the infection before and after the implementation of these policies.

Comparing the situation with no policy, he estimated that interventions prevented or delayed 62 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 in six countries. He said that about 30,530 million total infections would be eliminated.


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